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Weekly market analysis from 9th December
BY TIO Staff
|December 9, 2024This week is set to be pivotal with a packed schedule of key economic data releases. Including central bank interest rate announcements likely to influence global markets.
The action begins on Tuesday with attention on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s expectation to maintain its cash rate at 4.35%. Traders will closely examine the accompanying rate statement for any signals about future monetary policy, particularly in light of global economic uncertainties.
Wednesday will feature important economic data and central bank events. The U.S. is set to release key inflation figures, with the Core CPI expected to remain unchanged at 0.3%. CPI m/m is also forecast to increase to 0.3%, up from 0.2% last month, while the CPI y/y is projected to rise to 2.7% from 2.6%. Later in the afternoon, the Bank of Canada (BOC) will release the overnight rate, which is expected to drop by 50 bp to 3.25%.
Thursday is set to be a busy day for economic releases, beginning with Australian employment change data, expected to rise to 26.0K, up from the previous 15.9K, while the unemployment rate is forecast to tick up slightly to 4.2%. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will follow with its policy rate, where it is expected to be reduced to 0.75% from 1.00%. In the Eurozone, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its main refinancing rate, expected to decrease to 3.15% from 3.50%. The United States will also release key inflation data, with the Core PPI forecasted to tick down to 0.2%, while the PPI m/m is expected to tick up to 0.3%. Additionally, unemployment claims are projected at 221K, slightly lower than the previous of 224K. The day will end with the ECB press conference, where market participants will look for further clues on the future direction of European monetary policy.
The week wraps up on Friday with the United Kingdom’s GDP data, expected to show a modest rebound with a 0.1% forecast. This release will be closely watched for indications of economic health, especially as the Bank of England assesses its next moves.
Here are 3 markets to watch this week
All technical analysis is provided by Trading Central.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY is showing potential for a downside move towards the 141.65–146.00 range, with a pivot at 156.75 serving as a key level to watch. A bearish outlook favors short positions below 156.75, targeting 146.00 and potentially extending to 141.65. However, a break above 156.75 could signal further upside, with targets at 160.25 and 161.75. The RSI reflects a mixed but bearish bias, suggesting downward pressure remains dominant while support and resistance levels provide guidance, with 150.27 as the last traded price.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD may decline towards the 1.0330–1.0080 range, with 1.0940 acting as the pivotal level. A bearish bias supports short positions below 1.0940, targeting 1.0330 initially and extending to 1.0080. Alternatively, a break above 1.0940 could lead to further upside, with 1.1000 and 1.1200 as potential targets. The RSI indicates a lack of upward momentum, reinforcing the bearish outlook, while key support and resistance levels provide additional directional cues, with 1.0552 as the last traded price.
Gold
Gold may rise towards the 2720.00–2790.00 range, with 2605.00 acting as a key support level. Long positions above 2605.00 are preferred, targeting 2720.00 initially and extending to 2790.00. However, if the price drops below 2605.00, further downside is possible, with targets at 2540.00 and 2450.00. A support base has formed at 2605.00, allowing for temporary stabilization, while key support and resistance levels guide potential price movements, with 2646.00 as the last traded price.
This weeks high impact market events
The following economic events and data releases have the potential to cause considerable price movements, thereby offering you both opportunities and risks. Stay informed and leverage our economic calendar to access real-time data and analysis as these key events unfold.
Time (GMT +3)
Tuesday 10th December
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 5:30 AM | AUD | Cash Rate |
| AUD | RBA Rate Statement |
Wednesday 11th December
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 3:30 PM | USD | Core CPI m/m |
| USD | CPI m/m | |
| USD | CPI y/y | |
| 4:45 PM | CAD | BOC Rate Statement |
| CAD | Overnight Rate | |
| 5:30 PM | CAD | BOC Press Conference |
Thursday 12th December
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 2:30 AM | AUD | Employment Change |
| AUD | Unemployment Rate | |
| 10:30 AM | CHF | SNB Monetary Policy Assessment |
| CHF | SNB Policy Rate | |
| 11:00 AM | CHF | SNB Press Conference |
| 3:15 PM | EUR | Main Refinancing Rate |
| EUR | Monetary Policy Statement | |
| 3:30 PM | USD | Core PPI m/m |
| USD | PPI m/m | |
| USD | Unemployment Claims | |
| 3:45 PM | EUR | ECB Press Conference |
Friday 13th December
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 9:00 AM | GBP | GDP m/m |
How will you trade the markets this week?
While research has been undertaken to compile the above content, it remains an informational and educational piece only. None of the content provided constitutes any form of investment advice.
TIO Markets UK Limited is a company registered in England and Wales under company number 06592025 and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority FRN: 488900
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