Risk disclaimer: 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs and Spreadbets with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and Spreadbets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Weekly market analysis from 27th January 2025
BY TIO Staff
|January 27, 2025This week’s high-impact economic events present a mix of central bank decisions, inflation updates, and GDP figures across key economies, including the USD, AUD, CAD, EUR, and CHF.
Today, Monday 27th January, SNB Chairman Schlegel's speech provided insights into Switzerland’s monetary policy stance, setting the tone for the week.
On Tuesday 28th, sees a critical US consumer sentiment update with CB Consumer Confidence expected to rise to 105.9 from 104.7, signaling potential resilience in the US economy.
Wednesday 29th, is packed with market-moving data. Australia’s CPI readings are expected to reflect moderate inflationary pressures, with CPI q/q forecasted at 0.3% compared to 0.2%, while the trimmed mean CPI q/q could ease to 0.6% from 0.8%. Later in the day, the Bank of England’s Governor Bailey and the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy decisions dominate headlines. The BoC is projected to lower its Overnight Rate to 3.00% from 3.25%, while the BOC Monetary Policy Report and Press Conference may offer clarity on future policy adjustments. In the US, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its Federal Funds Rate at 4.50%, with the FOMC statement and press conference closely watched for any signals of changes to its tightening path.
On Thursday 30th, attention shifts to Europe and the US, as the ECB announces its Main Refinancing Rate, anticipated to decline to 2.90% from 3.15%, accompanied by the Monetary Policy Statement and ECB Press Conference. Across the Atlantic, the US will release its Advance GDP q/q, projected to decelerate to 2.7% from 3.1%, alongside weekly Unemployment Claims expected to dip slightly to 221K from 223K.
Friday 31st, concludes the week with notable data points from Europe and North America. Germany’s Prelim CPI m/m is forecasted at 0.1%, reflecting a significant slowdown from the prior 0.5%. Canada’s GDP m/m is anticipated to contract by -0.1%, reversing from 0.3%, while in the US, the Core PCE Price Index m/m is expected to tick higher to 0.2%, and the Employment Cost Index q/q to rise to 0.9% from 0.8%, signaling sustained wage pressures.
Traders will keep a close eye on these events for signs of economic momentum and monetary policy shifts, navigating potential volatility across forex and broader markets.
Here are 3 markets to watch this week
All technical analysis is provided by Trading Central.
AUD/USD
If AUD/USD remains below the pivot point at 0.6550, the pair could potentially decline toward the support levels at 0.6129 and 0.5980. Alternatively, a break above the pivot at 0.6550 may lead to further upside, targeting 0.6685 and 0.6795. While a technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its upside potential appears limited.
Gold
If gold remains above the pivot point at 2650.00, the metal could potentially rise toward the resistance levels at 2860.00 and 2920.00. Alternatively, a break below the pivot at 2650.00 may lead to further downside, targeting 2600.00 and 2540.00. The RSI indicates strong upside momentum.
EUR/USD
If EUR/USD remains below the pivot point at 1.0630, the pair could potentially fall toward the support levels at 1.0200 and 1.0080. Alternatively, a break above the pivot at 1.0630 may lead to further upside, targeting 1.0780 and 1.0940. While a continuation of the technical rebound is possible, its upside potential is expected to be limited.
This week's high impact market events
The following economic events and data releases have the potential to cause considerable price movements, thereby offering you both opportunities and risks. Stay informed and leverage our economic calendar to access real-time data and analysis as these key events unfold.
Time (GMT +3)
Monday 27th January
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 11:25 PM | CHF | SNB Chairman Schlegel Speaks |
Tuesday 28th January
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 5:00 PM | USD | CB Consumer Confidence |
Wednesday 29th January
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 2:30 AM | AUD | CPI q/q |
| AUD | CPI y/y | |
| AUD | Trimmed Mean CPI q/q | |
| 4:15 PM | GBP | BOE Gov Bailey Speaks |
| 4:45 PM | CAD | BOC Monetary Policy Report |
| CAD | BOC Rate Statement | |
| CAD | Overnight Rate | |
| 5:30 PM | CAD | BOC Press Conference |
| 9:00 PM | USD | Federal Funds Rate |
| USD | FOMC Statement | |
| 9:30 PM | USD | FOMC Press Conference |
Thursday 30th January
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 3:15 PM | EUR | Main Refinancing Rate |
| EUR | Monetary Policy Statement | |
| 3:30 PM | USD | Advance GDP q/q |
| USD | Unemployment Claims | |
| 3:45 PM | EUR | ECB Press Conference |
Friday 31st January
| Time | Currency | Event |
| All Day | EUR | German Prelim CPI m/m |
| 3:30 PM | CAD | GDP m/m |
| USD | Core PCE Price Index m/m | |
| USD | Employment Cost Index q/q |
How will you trade the markets this week?
While research has been undertaken to compile the above content, it remains an informational and educational piece only. None of the content provided constitutes any form of investment advice.
TIO Markets UK Limited is a company registered in England and Wales under company number 06592025 and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority FRN: 488900
Risk warning: CFDs and Spreadbets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs and Spreadbets with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and Spreadbets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money
DISCLAIMER: TIO Markets offers an exclusively execution-only service. The views expressed are for information purposes only. None of the content provided constitutes any form of investment advice. The comments are made available purely for educational and marketing purposes and do NOT constitute advice or investment recommendation (and should not be considered as such) and do not in any way constitute an invitation to acquire any financial instrument or product. TIOmarkets and its affiliates and consultants are not liable for any damages that may be caused by individual comments or statements by TIOmarkets analysis and assumes no liability with respect to the completeness and correctness of the content presented. The investor is solely responsible for the risk of his/her investment decisions. The analyses and comments presented do not include any consideration of your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. The content has not been prepared in accordance with any legal requirements for financial analysis and must, therefore, be viewed by the reader as marketing information. TIOmarkets prohibits duplication or publication without explicit approval.
Behind every blog post lies the combined experience of the people working at TIOmarkets. We are a team of dedicated industry professionals and financial markets enthusiasts committed to providing you with trading education and financial markets commentary. Our goal is to help empower you with the knowledge you need to trade in the markets effectively.
Related Posts
