Weekly market analysis from 17th February 2025

This week's economic calendar is packed with significant events that could impact market sentiment, particularly for the AUD, GBP, NZD, and USD.

The week begins on Tuesday with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decisions. The RBA will announce its cash rate, expected to drop from 4.35% to 4.10%. This could signal a shift in the RBA’s monetary policy. Later, the UK's Claimant Count Change data is set to be released, expected to show an increase of 10.0K, up from 0.7K. The Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey, will also speak, offering possible insights into future policy decisions.

Later, Canada’s CPI (Consumer Price Index) will be in focus, with expectations of a 0.00% m/m change, following a -0.40% previous reading. The core inflation measures will also be watched, with expectations of 2.40% y/y for the Median CPI and 2.60% for the Trimmed CPI. Finally, at tentative times, President Trump will speak, likely influencing USD sentiment.

Midweek on Wednesday, Australian wage data (Wage Price Index) will be released, with no change expected from the previous quarter at 0.80%. New Zealand's Official Cash Rate decision is expected to decrease from 4.25% to 3.75%, with the accompanying RBNZ monetary policy statement likely to offer further direction. GBP's CPI data will also be crucial, with a forecasted rise to 2.80% y/y, up from 2.50%. The US FOMC Meeting Minutes will provide additional insights into Fed policy direction.

Thursday sees more important releases, with Australia's Employment Change, showing a drop in job growth from 56.3K to 19.7K. The Unemployment Rate is also expected to rise to 4.10%, up from 4.00%. In the US, Unemployment Claims data will be released, with a small rise expected to 214K from 213K.

Finally on Friday, market participants will be looking to AUD’s RBA Governor Bullock’s speech for any policy clues. The UK’s Retail Sales figures are expected to show a modest 0.30% growth after a previous contraction of -0.30%. The Eurozone's flash manufacturing PMI data for France and Germany will be closely watched, as well as the UK’s own manufacturing and services PMI. Later, Canada's Retail Sales will provide a look at consumer spending trends, with Core Retail Sales expected to rebound with a 1.70% m/m increase.

With key inflation figures, central bank speeches, and GDP data across multiple major currencies, this week could bring increased volatility, particularly in the forex and equity markets. Traders will be closely monitoring these events for any clues on future policy changes and economic health.

Here are 3 markets to watch this week

All technical analysis is provided by Trading Central.

AUD/USD

If AUD/USD remains below the pivot point at 0.6450, the pair could potentially decline toward the support levels at 0.6050 and 0.5980. Alternatively, a break above 0.6450 may lead to further upside, targeting 0.6540 and 0.6685. Although a continuation of the technical rebound is possible, its extent is expected to be limited. The pair’s price action suggests a bearish bias below 0.6450, with a potential for downward movement toward 0.5980 if the selling pressure persists.

GBP/USD

If GBP/USD remains below the pivot point at 1.2810, the pair could potentially decline toward the support levels at 1.2360 and 1.2160. Alternatively, a break above 1.2810 may lead to further upside, targeting 1.3043 and 1.3260. Although a continuation of the technical rebound is possible, its extent is expected to be limited. The pair’s price action suggests a bearish bias below 1.2810, with the potential for downward movement toward 1.2160 if selling pressure continues.

EUR/GBP

If the price remains below the pivot point at 0.8450, the pair could potentially decline toward the support levels at 0.8220 and 0.8150. Alternatively, a break above 0.8450 may lead to further upside, targeting 0.8530 and 0.8625. As long as 0.8450 holds as resistance, expect choppy price action with a bearish bias, with the potential for further downside if the bearish momentum continues.

This week's high impact market events

The following economic events and data releases have the potential to cause considerable price movements, thereby offering you both opportunities and risks. Stay informed and leverage our economic calendar to access real-time data and analysis as these key events unfold.

Time (GMT +2)

Tuesday 18th February

Wednesday 19th February

Thursday 20th February

Friday 21st February

How will you trade the markets this week?

While research has been undertaken to compile the above content, it remains an informational and educational piece only. None of the content provided constitutes any form of investment advice.

TIO Markets UK Limited is a company registered in England and Wales under company number 06592025 and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority FRN: 488900

Risk warning: CFDs and Spreadbets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs and Spreadbets with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and Spreadbets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money

DISCLAIMER: TIO Markets offers an exclusively execution-only service. The views expressed are for information purposes only. None of the content provided constitutes any form of investment advice. The comments are made available purely for educational and marketing purposes and do NOT constitute advice or investment recommendation (and should not be considered as such) and do not in any way constitute an invitation to acquire any financial instrument or product. TIOmarkets and its affiliates and consultants are not liable for any damages that may be caused by individual comments or statements by TIOmarkets analysis and assumes no liability with respect to the completeness and correctness of the content presented. The investor is solely responsible for the risk of his/her investment decisions. The analyses and comments presented do not include any consideration of your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. The content has not been prepared in accordance with any legal requirements for financial analysis and must, therefore, be viewed by the reader as marketing information. TIOmarkets prohibits duplication or publication without explicit approval.

TIO Staff

Behind every blog post lies the combined experience of the people working at TIOmarkets. We are a team of dedicated industry professionals and financial markets enthusiasts committed to providing you with trading education and financial markets commentary. Our goal is to help empower you with the knowledge you need to trade in the markets effectively.

Related Posts

Analysis

Weekly market analysis from 10th February 2025

This week’s economic calendar is packed with high impact events that could shape market sentiment, particularly for the USD, GBP, NZD, and CHF. The week kicks off on Tuesday with Bank of Eng...

Analysis

Weekly market analysis from 3rd February 2025

This week’s economic calendar is filled with key data releases and central bank decisions that could influence market sentiment, particularly for the USD, GBP, CAD, and NZD. The week begins ...

Analysis

Weekly market analysis from 27th January 2025

This week’s high-impact economic events present a mix of central bank decisions, inflation updates, and GDP figures across key economies, including the USD, AUD, CAD, EUR, and CHF. Today, Mo...

Analysis

Weekly market analysis from 20th January 2025

This week’s high-impact economic events provide critical updates for the GBP, CAD, and JPY, alongside insights into the broader market outlook. On Tuesday, the UK’s Claimant Count Change is ...