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Analysis

No hike from the RBA

BY Janne Muta

|July 4, 2023

The Reserve Bank of Australia left the rates unchanged. The market pricing prior to today's decision indicated a 63% probability of no change, so the decision didn’t come as a surprise. Additionally, the RBA made minimal changes to its language and maintained the existing forward guidance. However, the RBA did emphasize that this decision is aimed at reassessing the current situation.

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On a short trading day before a holiday, the stock and bond markets closed early with little change in equity prices due to a lack of economic data. The consumer discretionary sector received a boost from Tesla's positive delivery and production figures. Looking ahead, there will be a focus on upcoming data releases, including the US Services PMI report and the June jobs report, which will provide insights into the health of the US labour market. Monthly NFP gains are expected to moderate (+224K, 339K previous), leading to a slight increase in the unemployment rate. Despite some deceleration in the broader economy, the labour market has remained strong, benefiting consumers and supporting GDP growth and financial market performance in 2023.

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EURAUD

EURAUD is bearish below 1.6434 and could trade down to 1.6260. Above 162.64 the market might trade to 1.6460.

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BTCUSD

BTCUSD remains bullish above 29 514. Below the level, the market could move to 28 800. The market has been supported by the news related to BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF application’s possible acceptance by the SEC.

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NZDUSD

NZDUSD is bullish above 0.6140. Below the level, look for a move to 0.6116.

The next main risk events

  • CNY Caixin Services PMI
  • USOIL OPEC Meetings
  • USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • AUD Trade Balance
  • USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
  • USD Unemployment Claims
  • USD ISM Services PMI
  • USD JOLTS Job Openings
  • CHF Foreign Currency Reserves
  • GBP BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
  • CAD Employment Change
  • CAD Unemployment Rate
  • USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
  • USD Non-Farm Employment Change
  • USD Unemployment Rate
  • CAD Ivey PMI
  • EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks

For more information and details see the TIOmarkets economic calendar.

Trade Safe!

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
TIOmarkets

Tio Markets UK Limited is a company registered in England and Wales under company number 06592025 and is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority FRN: 488900

Risk warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Professional clients can lose more than they deposit. All trading involves risk.

DISCLAIMER: TIOmarkets offers exclusively consultancy-free service. The views expressed in this blog are our opinions only and made available purely for educational and marketing purposes and do NOT constitute advice or investment recommendation (and should not be considered as such) and do not in any way constitute an invitation to acquire any financial instrument or product. TIOmarkets and its affiliates and consultants are not liable for any damages that may be caused by individual comments or statements by TIOmarkets analysis and assumes no liability with respect to the completeness and correctness of the content presented. The investor is solely responsible for the risk of his/her investment decisions. The analyses and comments presented do not include any consideration of your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. The content has not been prepared in accordance with any legal requirements for financial analysis and must, therefore, be viewed by the reader as marketing information. TIOmarkets prohibits duplication or publication without explicit approval.

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Janne Muta

Janne Muta holds an M.Sc in finance and has over 20 years experience in analysing and trading the financial markets.