This week promises a flurry of activity for traders, with numerous pivotal economic events and data releases on the agenda. Market volatility is likely to spike, presenting trading opportunit...

Weekly Market Analysis 22nd July 2024

Forex trading has exploded in popularity over the last couple of decades and you may be asking the question - "how do I start forex trading".

The answer is quite simple but you should know t...

How Do I Start Forex Trading?

Whether you want to trade the markets using stocks, currencies or commodities this article provides you with understanding with an intro to different markets and trading instruments but also ...

Trade the Markets Like a Pro: Strategies and Tips

In the United States, the authority to set interest rates is divided between the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Board) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board decides on changes in discount rates after recommendations submitted by one or more of the regional Federal Reserve Banks. The FOMC decides on open market operations, including the desired levels of central bank money or the desired federal funds market rate.

FOMC Minutes

4-Week Bill Auction

8-Week Bill Auction

Stocks of crude oil refer to the weekly change of the crude oil supply situation.

API Crude Oil Stock Change

The Dallas Fed conducts the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey monthly to obtain a timely assessment of the state's service sector activity. Firms are asked whether revenue, employment, prices, general business activity and other indicators increased, decreased or remained unchanged over the previous month. Responses are aggregated into balance indexes where positive values generally indicate growth while negative values generally indicate contraction.

Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index

Dallas Fed Services Index

The FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) House Price Index measures month over month changes in average prices of single-family houses with mortgages guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

House Price Index YoY

House Price Index MoM

House Price Index

The Johnson Redbook Index is a sales-weighted of year-over-year same-store sales growth in a sample of large US general merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores. Same-store sales are sales in stores continuously open for 12 months or longer. By dollar value, the Index represents over 80% of the equivalent 'official' retail sales series collected and published by the US Department of Commerce. Redbook compiles the Index by collecting and interpreting performance estimates from retailers. The Index and its sub-groups are sales-weighted aggregates of these estimates. Weeks are retail weeks (Sunday to Saturday), and equally weighted within the month.

Redbook YoY

3-Month Bill Auction

6-Month Bill Auction

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index measures the performance of manufacturing sector in the state of Texas. The index is derived from a survey of around 100 business executives and tracks variables such as output, employment, orders and prices. A reading above 0 indicates an expansion of the factory activity compared to the previous month; below 0 represents a contraction; while 0 indicates no change. Texas produces around 9.5 percent of manufacturing output in US. The state ranks second behind California in factory production and first as an exporter of manufactured goods.

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator of housing activity, measures housing contract activity, and is based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos and co-ops. When a seller accepts a sales contract on a property, it is recorded into a Multiple Listing Service (MLS) as a "pending home sale." The majority of pending home sales become home sale transactions, typically one to two months later. The National Association of Realtors collects pending home sales data from MLSs and large brokers. Altogether, data from over 100 MLSs & 60 large brokers is received providing a large sample size covering 50% of the existing home sales sample. This is equal to 20 percent of all transactions.

Pending Home Sales MoM

Pending Home Sales YoY

The Chicago PMI (ISM-Chicago Business Barometer) measures the performance of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sector in the Chicago region. The Index is computed from five weighted raw indexes: Production (0.25), New Orders (0.35), Order Backlog (0.15), Employment (0.10), and Supplier Deliveries (0.15) and then seasonally adjusted to support month-to-month comparisons. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion; below 50 represents a contraction; while 50 indicates no change. Chicago PMI is released one day before the ISM Manufacturing Index.

Chicago PMI

The Nationwide house price index is an indicator of trends in UK house prices. The index is calculated based on owner occupier house purchase transactions involving a mortgage. Buy to let and cash purchases are not included.

Nationwide Housing Prices MoM

Nationwide Housing Prices YoY

US Total Rigs refer to the number of active US rigs drilling in a given week.

Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count

US Crude Oil Rigs refer to the number of active US rigs drilling for oil in a given week.

Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

Natural Gas Stocks Change refers to the weekly change of the natural gas supply situation.

EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index measures changes in residential house prices in 20 metropolitan regions in the United States: Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Tampa and Washington D.C.

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM

The Wholesale Inventories are the stock of unsold goods held by wholesalers. Inventories are a key component of gross domestic product changes. A high inventory points to economic slowdown in the US, while a low reading points to a stronger growth.

Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv

In the US, goods trade balance is equal to goods exports less goods imports.

Goods Trade Balance Adv

Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv

Fed Balance Sheet

15-Year Mortgage Rate

The Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit. Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. The interest rate a lender would charge to lend mortgage money to a qualified borrower exclusive of the fees and points required by the lender. This commitment rate applies only to conventional financing on conforming mortgages with loan-to-value rates of 80 percent or less.

30-Year Mortgage Rate

Stocks of gasoline refers to the weekly change of the gasoline supply situation.

EIA Gasoline Stocks Change

EIA Gasoline Production Change

EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change

EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change

EIA Crude Oil Imports Change

Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in storage at the Cushing, Oklahoma during the past week.

EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change

EIA Distillate Stocks Change

EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change

Crude Runs refer to the volume of crude oil consumed by refineries.

EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change

Continuing Jobless Claims refer to actual number of unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits who filed for unemployment benefits at least two weeks ago.

Continuing Jobless Claims

Jobless Claims 4-week Average

Initial jobless claims refer to the number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits with their state's unemployment agency for the first time during a specific reporting period, typically on a weekly basis. 
.

Initial Jobless Claims

Boxing Day

MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate is average 30-year fixed mortgage lending rate measured during the reported week and backed by the Mortgage Bankers Association.

MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate

In the US, the MBA Weekly Mortgage Application Survey is a comprehensive overview of the nationwide mortgage market and covers all types of mortgage originators, including commercial banks, thrift institutions and mortgage banking companies. The entire market is represented by the Market Index which covers all mortgage applications during the week, whether for a purchase or to refinance. The survey covers over 75% of all US retail residential mortgage applications.

MBA Mortgage Applications

The MBA Weekly Mortgage Application Survey is a comprehensive overview of the nationwide mortgage market and covers all types of mortgage originators, including commercial banks, thrift institutions and mortgage banking companies. The entire market is represented by the Market Index which covers all mortgage applications during the week. This includes all conventional and government applications, all fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs), all adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), whether for a purchase or to refinance.

MBA Mortgage Refinance Index

MBA Purchase Index

MBA Mortgage Market Index

Christmas

The United States Money Supply M2 includes M1 plus short-term time deposits in banks.

Money Supply

The Richmond Manufacturing Index measures the conditions of the manufacturing sector for the District of Columbia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and most of West Virginia. The index is derived from a survey of 190 manufacturing plants and based on three individual index with the following weights: Shipments (33 percent), New Orders (40 percent) and Employment (27 percent). The index can range between +100 and -100; a reading above zero indicates expansion, while below zero suggests a contraction.

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

The data come from the Fifth District Survey of Service Sector Activity. Respondents to the survey are firms located within the Fifth Federal Reserve District which includes the District of Columbia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and most of West Virginia. Respondents indicate whether measures of activity rose, were unchanged, or decreased since the last survey. The responses are converted into diffusion indexes by subtracting the percentage of reported decreases from the percentage of increases.

Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index

A sale of the new house occurs with the signing of a sales contract or the acceptance of a deposit. The house can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction, or already completed. New home sales account for about 10 percent of the US housing market. New single-family home sales are extremely volatile month-to-month and preliminary figures are subject to large revisions because they are mostly drawn from building permits data.

New Home Sales

New Home Sales MoM

Durable Goods Orders Excluding Defense refer to new orders placed with manufacturers for delivery of hard goods in the future excluding defense orders.

Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM

Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation refer to new orders placed with manufacturers for delivery of hard goods in the future excluding transportation orders.

Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM

Durable Goods Orders refer to new orders placed with manufacturers for delivery of hard goods which meant to last at least three years.

Durable Goods Orders MoM

Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air

Building Permits refer to the approvals given by a local jurisdictions before the construction of a new or existing building can legally occur. Not all areas of the United States require a permit for construction.

Building Permits Final

Building Permits MoM Final

Early Market Close in Observance of Christmas Day

CB Consumer Confidence

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is based on a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It has an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative reading corresponds to growth below trend.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

In the United Kingdom, the year-over-year change in Retail sales compares the aggregated sales of retail goods and services during a certain month to the same month a year ago.

Retail Sales YoY

In the United Kingdom, the Retail sales report provides an aggregated measure of sales of retail goods and services over a specific time period. In the United Kingdom, Retail sales are seasonal, volatile and relatively important to the overall economy.

Retail Sales MoM

Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY

Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM

The services sector is the most important and account for 79 percent of United Kingdom's GDP. The biggest segments within services are: government, education and health (19 percent of total GDP); real estate (12 percent); professional, scientific and technical activities and administrative and support services (12 percent); wholesale and retail trade (11 percent); and financial and insurance (8 percent). Industry accounts for 21 percent of the GDP and the largest segments within this sector are: manufacturing (10 percent of total GDP) and construction (6 percent). The Agriculture sector accounts for only 1 percent of GDP. Composition of the GDP on the expenditure side: household consumption (65 percent), government expenditure (20 percent) and gross fixed capital formation (17 percent). Exports of goods and services account for 28 percent of GDP while imports account for 30 percent, subtracting 2 percent from GDP.

GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final

GDP The United Kingdom is the sixth largest economy in the world and the second largest in Europe after Germany. The Services sector is the most important and accounts for 79 percent to total GDP. The biggest segments within Services are: government, education and health (19 percent of total GDP); real estate (12 percent); professional, scientific and technical activities and administrative and support services (12 percent); wholesale and retail trade (11 percent); and financial and insurance (8 percent). Industry accounts for 21 percent of the GDP and the largest segments within this sector are: manufacturing (10 percent of total GDP) and construction (6 percent). The Agriculture sector accounts for only 1 percent of GDP.

GDP Growth Rate YoY Final

Current Account is the sum of the balance of trade (exports minus imports of goods and services), net factor income (such as interest and dividends) and net transfer payments (such as foreign aid).

Current Account

In the UK, business investment is net investment by private and public corporations. These include investments in transport, information and communication technology (ICT) equipment, other machinery and equipment, cultivated assets, intellectual property products (IPP, which includes investment in software, research and development, artistic originals and mineral exploration), and buildings and other structures. It does not include investment by central or local government, investment in dwellings, or the costs associated with the transfer of non-produced assets (such as land).

Business Investment YoY Final

Business Investment QoQ Final

The Index of Consumer Expectations focuses on three areas: how consumers view prospects for their own financial situation, how they view prospects for the general economy over the near term, and their view of prospects for the economy over the long term. Each monthly survey contains approximately 50 core questions, each of which tracks a different aspect of consumer attitudes and expectations. The samples for the Surveys of Consumers are statistically designed to be representative of all American households, excluding those in Alaska and Hawaii. Each month, a minimum of 500 interviews are conducted by telephone.

Michigan Inflation Expectations Final

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final

Michigan Current Conditions Final

Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final

Michigan Consumer Expectations Final

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is the primary measure of consumer spending on goods and services in the U.S. economy. 1 It accounts for about two-thirds of domestic final spending, and thus it is the primary engine that drives future economic growth. PCE shows how much of the income earned by households is being spent on current consumption as opposed to how much is being saved for future consumption. PCE also provides a comprehensive measure of types of goods and services that are purchased by households. Thus, for example, it shows the portion of spending that is accounted for by discretionary items, such as motor vehicles, or the adjustments that consumers make to changes in prices, such as a sharp run-up in gasoline prices.

Personal Spending MoM

Personal Income refers to the income that persons receive in return for their provision of labor, land, and capital used in current production, plus current transfer receipts less contributions for government social insurance.

Personal Income MoM

In the United States, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index provides a measure of the prices paid for domestic purchases of goods and services. While the Consumer Price Index assumes a fixed basket of goods and uses expenditure weights that do not change over time for several years, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index uses a chain index and resorts on expenditure data from the current period and the preceding period (known as Fisher Price Index).

PCE Price Index MoM

PCE Price Index YoY

Core PCE Price Index MoM

In the United States, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index provides a measure of the prices paid by people for domestic purchases of goods and services, excluding the prices of food and energy. The core PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation measure. The central bank has a 2 percent target.

Core PCE Price Index YoY

The Confederation of British Industry's (CBI) monthly retail sales balance is a gauge of retail sales versus a year ago. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 150 retail and wholesale companies. It includes measures of sales activity across the distributive trades. It is a leading indicator of consumer spending. The figure is the difference between the percentage of retailers reporting an increase in sales and those reporting a decrease.

CBI Distributive Trades

In the United Kingdom, the Confederation of British Industry‘s Industrial Trends Survey of total order book balance tracks changes in the level of factory orders from around 500 companies across 38 sectors of manufacturing industry. The survey covers domestic and export orders, stocks, price, investment intentions and output expectations. For each variable, manufacturers are asked if present situation is above normal, normal or below normal. The results are presented as a weighted percentage balance, that is, the difference between the percentage of respondents replying more or up to each question minus the percentage replying less or down.

CBI Industrial Trends Orders

In the UK, public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks (PSNB ex) measures the gap between revenue raised (current receipts) and total spending. Total spending refers to current expenditure plus net investment (capital spending less capital receipts). Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) is often referred to by commentators as “the deficit”.

Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks

In the UK, public sector net borrowing measures the change in the public sectors accruing net financial indebtedness. This represents the balance for the financial account: the difference between the net acquisition of financial assets and the net incurrence of liabilities. Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) is often referred to by commentators as “the deficit”.

Public Sector Net Borrowing

Car Production YoY

Net Treasury International Capital Flows includes all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows.

Overall Net Capital Flows

The Net Long-Term TIC Flows track the flow of Treasury and agency securities, corporate bonds and equities, into and out of the United States.

Net Long-term TIC Flows

Foreign Bond Investment refers to net purchases of US treasury bonds and notes by foreign individuals or companies. Negative figures indicate net sales by foreigners to US residents or a net outflow of capital from the United States.
.

Foreign Bond Investment

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This is how to use the profit calculator

(0.01) X 100,000 = the potential profit and that would be $1,000.

However if the closing price is worse than the buy price, then the loss would be the equivalent amount.

If the account’s base currency is denominated in EUR, then $1,000 would have to be converted to the EUR equivalent at the current EURUSD rate of exchange.

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